WorldWide Drilling Resource

February 11 - 13, 2021 Aquarius Casino Resort - Laughlin, NV Located on the Colorado River For more information visit us online: mountainstatesgroundwater.com E-mail: info@ mountainstatesgroundwater.com (480) 609-3993 WHYATTEND??? • It’s a great opportunity to visit with manufacturers & suppliers, drilling contractors & pump installers, technical & consulting firms, state groundwater officials, etc. • Attend the seminars • Visit the exhibits • Earn CEU’s • Participate in the Buck Lively Scholarship Auction & Raffle No membership is required to attend – Everyone is welcome! It’s casual & inexpensive: Bring your employees! 34 DECEMBER 2020 WorldWide Drilling Resource ® Oil Sands Production Expects Rebound Despite Pandemic Adapted from Information by IHS Markit Although production of Canadian oil sands has declined as a result of the recent pandemic, the long-term outlook hasn’t changed very much from prepandemic projections. According to a new ten-year forecast by IHS Markit, the IHS Markit Oil Sands Dialogue , Canadian oil sands production is expected to reach 3.8 million barrels per day (MMbd) in 2030, higher than 2020 levels by more than 1.1 MMbd. The previous IHS Markit forecast expected production to reach 3.9 MMbd in 2030. Prior to the pandemic, the oil sands market was not expecting significant growth over the next decade. Issues with transportation constraints (lack of adequate pipeline capacity) and price insecurity in western Canada were expected to take a toll on production over the next decade. “The impact of COVID-19 has changed the reason for a period of lower investment in the oil sands, not necessarily the direction of long-term expectations,” said Celina Hwang, senior analyst, IHS Markit focused on western Canadian supply. “Recent reductions . . . are likely to be only temporary, and curtailed output is expected to return.” Oil sands production is anticipated to rise during the last part of 2020 and into 2021 as production comes back online. The forecast also suggests if the Government of Alberta eased restrictions, output could rise nearly 500,000 b/d (barrels per day) from 2020 to 2022, more than 300,000 b/d higher than 2019. Production could then continue on a course closer to prior expectations, with most production growth over the next ten years coming from the recovery and ramp-up of existing production capacity. Over half of the expected 500,000 b/d of growth will come from the recovery and ramp-up of existing production, while the rest will come from new capacity. Roughly half of the new capacity includes projects where capital has already been used, projects on hold, and those where initial work has already begun, as well as debottlenecking and optimization projects. Altogether, less than a third of anticipated growth to 2030 is expected to come from new projects including new greenfield operations and existing facilities expansion. The IHS Markit forecast notes there are remaining uncertainties in the global recovery from the pandemic and the status of western Canadian pipeline capacity could shift the trajectory of oil sands production in the future. Overall, previous projections for long-term production remain largely unchanged. G&O

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